AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish Readings Spike to 47.6%

AAII Sentiment Hits Bearish Extreme

The American Association of Individual Investors just released its weekly survey. Bullish sentiment fell 5.9 percentage points to 30.4%. Neutral dropped 4.8 points to 22.0%. That puts bearish sentiment at 47.6%.

Those are not small moves.

The Numbers in Context

The AAII long-run average for bullish sentiment is 37.5%. We're sitting 7 points below that. Bearish sentiment's historical average is around 31%. At 47.6%, the bears are running 16 points above normal.

Both bulls and neutral readings fell in the same week. The sentiment didn't shift sideways. It compressed into the bearish bucket.

What Sentiment Extremes Signal

The AAII survey is a contrarian tool. Individual investors tend to be most pessimistic near bottoms, not tops. When bearish readings push above 45%, the historical record tilts toward positive forward returns over a 6 to 12-month window.

That is a tendency, not a guarantee. Sentiment tells you where the crowd is positioned. It does not tell you when the turn comes.

Readings This Low on Bulls Are Rare

30.4% bullish is a compressed reading. The last several times bulls fell this low, the market was either in the middle of a correction or about to stage a recovery. Both outcomes have played out from these levels historically. Context around price action and sector flows matters.

Pessimism at this scale tends to create asymmetric setups. When everyone already expects the worst, bad news has less fuel.

What This Means for Traders

• **Bearish readings above 45% have historically preceded above-average 12-month S&P 500 returns.** That's the data. Sentiment this negative is a setup to track, not a reason to panic.
• **Bullish sentiment at 30.4% is 7 points below its long-run average.** Extremes in either direction tend to revert. The question is timing, not direction.
• ChartOdds tracks historical sentiment extremes alongside price performance across sectors. The pattern data shows where these readings have actually led, not where pundits say they should.