AMGN Earnings History: 93.8% Beat Rate and What the Data Says for May 2026

AMGN reports on May 7, 2026. That is 30 days away. The historical data on this stock makes it one of the more consistent earnings plays in large-cap biotech.

The Beat Rate

Amgen has beaten earnings estimates 15 out of 16 quarters tracked by ChartOdds. That is a 93.8% beat rate. Very few large-cap stocks sustain that level of consistency across 16 quarters.

One miss in 16 quarters is not noise. It is a pattern worth understanding before you size into a position.

What Happens After a Beat

After a beat, AMGN closes higher the next day 53.3% of the time. The average move on those up sessions is 1.65%. That is a real but modest edge.

Beats do not guarantee a rally. The stock has beaten expectations and sold off nearly half the time. Knowing the probability is more useful than assuming the outcome.

The Pattern

Amgen beats with near-certainty. A 93.8% beat rate over 16 quarters is among the highest for large-cap biotech. That kind of consistency does not happen by accident.

When AMGN misses, the market punishes it. The next-day down rate after a miss is 100%. That asymmetry matters when you are setting your risk parameters.

The post-beat average move of 1.65% is contained. Amgen is a mature biotech, not a volatile small-cap. The edge here is in the frequency of beats, not explosive price swings.

What This Means for Traders

First, the beat is the base case. A 93.8% beat rate means you are fading a strong historical trend if you expect a miss. Build your thesis around the likely outcome, not the exception.

Second, a beat is not a guaranteed catalyst. With 53.3% of beats resulting in next-day gains, direction after earnings is close to a coin flip on the upside. Do not size the trade as if the move is certain.

Third, respect the miss signal. A 100% next-day loss rate after a miss is the sharpest data point in this dataset. All of this analysis is drawn directly from ChartOdds AMGN earnings history.