ARM Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What Traders Need to Know

ARM is one of the most watched names in semiconductor earnings. The company licenses its chip architecture to virtually every major tech player on the planet, making its reports a proxy for the entire AI hardware cycle. When ARM reports, the sector pays attention.

The next report lands May 6, 2026, 29 days out. Before that date arrives, here's what ARM earnings history actually shows.

The Beat Rate

ARM has beaten Wall Street estimates in 8 out of 10 quarters tracked by ChartOdds. That's an 80.0% beat rate, well above the typical S&P 500 company. Consistent execution has defined ARM earnings history.

With only 2 misses in 10 quarters, the ARM earnings beat rate is one of the stronger records in the semiconductor space. The question is whether the stock rewards that consistency in price action.

What Happens After a Beat

Here's the counterintuitive part. Despite beating 80.0% of the time, ARM stock only rises the next day 25.0% of the time following a beat. The average next-day move after a beat is just 0.92%.

That gap between beat rate and positive price reaction is the key data point. The market tends to price in the beat before the report hits.

The Pattern

ARM beats estimates more often than it misses by a wide margin. But post-beat price action is muted, with the stock rising the next day only 1 in 4 times.

Misses hit differently. When ARM disappoints, the stock drops the next day 50.0% of the time. That asymmetry tells you where the real risk in this trade lives.

What This Means for Traders

If you're asking whether you should trade ARM earnings, the data gives you a clear framework. Beating is likely, but a next-day pop is not. Only 25.0% of beats result in an up day.

Misses carry outsized downside. A 50.0% drop rate after a miss means a disappointment is a coin flip for pain. Size your position accordingly.

The average move after a beat is only 0.92%. Expensive options premium rarely pays on ARM earnings. All of this comes directly from ChartOdds ARM earnings odds data, so you're trading facts, not feelings.