DIS Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What Traders Need to Know

Disney reports next on May 6, 2026, putting earnings 29 days out. With 16 quarters of data tracked, the DIS earnings history is one of the cleaner datasets in large-cap consumer discretionary. The numbers tell a specific story.

The Beat Rate

Disney beats earnings estimates 87.5% of the time. That is 14 beats out of 16 quarters. The S&P 500 average beat rate runs around 70%. DIS earnings odds sit well above that baseline, and the sample size is large enough to take seriously.

That beat rate is not a recent hot streak. It holds across the full 16-quarter window, which makes it structural rather than situational.

What Happens After a Beat

When Disney beats, the stock closes up the next day 57.1% of the time. The average move after an earnings beat is 1.71%. That is modest upside, but it represents a directional edge when the company clears the bar.

The gap between a 87.5% beat rate and a 57.1% next-day up rate is important. The market is pricing in the beat more often than not before the print drops.

The Pattern

Three observations stand out from the DIS earnings history.

First, the beat rate holds at 87.5% across the full dataset. This is not noise. Fourteen out of sixteen quarters is a real pattern worth factoring into your setup.

Second, the next-day price response after a beat is coin-flip adjacent at 57.1%. A beat alone does not move the stock reliably higher. Guidance, revenue, and forward estimates do more work than the EPS headline.

Third, the miss case is absolute: after a DIS earnings miss, the stock goes down the next day 100% of the time. No exceptions in the dataset. Missing estimates has a clean, consistent consequence.

What This Means for Traders

One, the 87.5% DIS beat rate gives you a favorable base rate going into the print. You are entering a situation where the company has covered the number far more often than it has not.

Two, a beat does not guarantee a green next day. At 57.1%, the edge exists but it is not decisive. Oversized confidence on a beat play is the trap here.

Three, the miss signal is the cleanest data point in this set. A 100% next-day down rate after a miss is the kind of edge traders look for. If your thesis is bearish and DIS misses, history has been unambiguous. All figures above are sourced from ChartOdds DIS earnings history data.