HD Earnings History: Beat Rate, Odds, and What the Data Says

Home Depot reports earnings on 2026-05-19, 42 days out. With 16 quarters of data behind it, HD has built a statistically meaningful pattern around its earnings releases. Traders who ignore this data are trading blind.

The Beat Rate

HD beats earnings estimates 81.2% of the time. That is 13 beats out of 16 quarters tracked. Most S&P 500 companies hover around 70% historically. HD runs consistently above that baseline.

The beat rate alone does not tell the whole story. What matters is how the stock moves after.

What Happens After a Beat

When HD beats, the stock closes higher the next day 69.2% of the time. The average next-day move after a beat is 0.31%. That is a modest gain, but the directional edge is real.

The miss side is where the data sharpens. After an earnings miss, HD drops the next day 100% of the time. No exceptions in the 16-quarter dataset.

The Pattern

Three things stand out in HD's earnings history. The beat rate of 81.2% means HD surprises to the upside far more often than not. Even when it beats, the average next-day move of 0.31% signals the market largely prices in good news ahead of the print. And the 100% post-miss downside rate is the clearest directional signal in the dataset.

HD is a stock where the miss scenario carries more certainty than the beat scenario. That asymmetry shapes how traders should size and structure the trade.

What This Means for Traders

First, the base case going into earnings is bullish. An 81.2% beat rate means the odds favor a positive surprise heading into 2026-05-19. Second, do not expect a large pop on a beat. The average next-day move after a beat is 0.31%, so oversized upside bets carry poor risk-to-reward. Third, if you are positioning for a miss, historical data gives you 100% next-day directional conviction, but misses only occur 18.8% of the time, so size accordingly. All figures here come directly from the ChartOdds HD earnings dataset.