MRNA Earnings History: 87.5% Beat Rate and What Traders Need to Know

Moderna reports on May 7, 2026. That is 30 days away. If you trade biotech earnings, MRNA has a track record worth understanding before the print.

The Beat Rate

MRNA has beaten earnings estimates 14 out of 16 quarters. That is an 87.5% beat rate. Among large-cap biotech names, that level of consistency is rare and worth building a thesis around.

What Happens After a Beat

After a beat, MRNA moves up the next day 57.1% of the time. The average post-beat move is 0.15%. That is a tight reaction, which tells you the market has largely priced in the beat before the number even drops.

The Pattern

Three things stand out from the MRNA earnings history. The beat rate is high at 87.5%, but the post-beat upside is minimal, averaging just 0.15% the following day. On the downside, when MRNA misses, the stock falls the next day 50.0% of the time. Misses are uncommon across 16 quarters of data, but the market does not forgive them when they happen.

What This Means for Traders

One: Trust the beat rate. At 87.5% over 16 quarters, MRNA beats far more often than it misses. That is a meaningful edge when sizing a position before the print. Two: Do not chase the post-beat pop. A 0.15% average move means there is not much juice after the number hits. The trade is in the setup, not the reaction. Three: The miss risk is real even if rare. When MRNA does miss, a coin-flip chance of a down day means you need a plan for both sides. All the underlying data in this analysis is sourced from ChartOdds, where MRNA earnings odds and full historical patterns are tracked and updated before every quarter.