NKE Earnings History: 93.8% Beat Rate, But the Stock Still Drops

NKE earnings have a reputation. Sixteen quarters of data. One of the cleanest beat rates in the market. With the next report due June 25, here is what the numbers actually say.

The Beat Rate

Nike beats earnings estimates 93.8% of the time. That is 15 beats out of 16 quarters tracked on ChartOdds. Most S&P 500 companies beat at a rate around 70-75%. Nike is operating in a different tier.

The one miss in that window is the data point worth studying. It tells you the floor, not just the ceiling.

What Happens After a Beat

This is where NKE gets complicated. Despite beating 93.8% of the time, the stock only goes up the next day 26.7% of the time after a beat. The average move following an earnings beat is -4.09%.

That is not a typo. Nike beats the number and drops. This is a textbook sell-the-news pattern, and it plays out consistently in the NKE earnings history.

The Pattern

Three things stand out in the data. First, the beat rate is elite but the price reaction is inverted: more often than not, a beat still means red the next day. Second, when NKE misses, the stock falls 100% of the time the following session. No exceptions in the dataset. Third, the risk is asymmetric in a counterintuitive direction: being right on the earnings call does not protect you from downside on the trade.

What This Means for Traders

Do not assume a beat equals a green day. The 73.3% chance of a down day after a beat is the most important number in the NKE earnings odds picture. Being right on the report and wrong on the position is a real outcome here.

If you are long going into June 25, consider trimming before the print. The data does not reward holding through the announcement, even when Nike delivers.

The miss scenario is cleaner: a 100% down rate after a miss makes the directional read straightforward. Know the setup before you size the trade. All figures on this page come from ChartOdds historical earnings tracking for NKE.