NVDA Earnings History: 87.5% Beat Rate and What the Odds Actually Say

NVIDIA reports earnings and the market reacts. Every quarter, traders ask the same question: should I trade NVDA earnings? The answer starts with the historical data, not analyst forecasts.

The Beat Rate

NVDA's earnings beat rate is 87.5%, based on 14 beats out of 16 quarters tracked by ChartOdds. That is the foundation of any serious NVDA earnings analysis. Consistency at that level is rare and worth understanding before the next report.

What Happens After a Beat

After an earnings beat, NVDA stock goes up the next day 57.1% of the time. The average move following a beat is 3.31%. Beating estimates does not guarantee a green day, and that is the part most traders underestimate.

The Pattern

Three things stand out in the NVDA earnings history. First, an 87.5% beat rate over 16 quarters is unusually consistent for a stock this volatile. Second, even with that beat frequency, the next-day reaction goes against the beat nearly 43% of the time. Third, after a miss, the stock drops 50.0% of the time, making misses a near coin-flip on direction rather than a guaranteed sell-off.

What This Means for Traders

First: NVDA earnings odds favor a beat, but a beat alone does not tell you the trade. Second: a 3.31% average post-earnings move means sizing and implied volatility matter as much as direction. Third: with the next earnings date on May 27, 2026, use ChartOdds data to frame your probability range before you size in.