OXY Earnings History: 75% Beat Rate and What the Data Says About the Next Move

OXY reports on May 5, 2026. Sixteen quarters of earnings history shows this stock moves with more consistency than most energy names suggest.

Occidental Petroleum carries a lot of noise: oil prices, geopolitical shifts, Buffett positioning. Strip that away and the earnings pattern is cleaner than you would expect.

The Beat Rate

OXY has beaten analyst estimates 12 times in the last 16 quarters. That is a 75.0% beat rate. For an energy stock tied to commodity cycles, that consistency stands out.

What Happens After a Beat

After a beat, OXY closes higher the next day 83.3% of the time. The average next-day move after a beat is 2.32%. The reaction is consistent without being explosive, which makes it easier to size around.

The Pattern

The symmetry here is what stands out. When OXY beats, buyers show up the next session 83.3% of the time. When it misses, sellers win 75.0% of the time.

Over 16 quarters, OXY has three beats for every miss. That tilt matters when you are deciding which direction to lean heading into the print.

The average post-beat move of 2.32% is moderate, not a gap-and-go situation. Options pricing may not fully account for directional probability, not just magnitude.

What This Means for Traders

A 75.0% beat rate gives you a directional prior before the print. That is a better starting point than most energy names offer heading into an earnings date.

After a beat, the 83.3% next-day upside rate is high enough to build a position around. Near-the-money calls expiring the week of May 5 capture the move without carrying excess theta.

The miss-and-drop pattern at 75.0% is equally clean on the other side, meaning risk management has the same historical support as the bullish setup. Every number here is sourced from ChartOdds earnings data, tracked across 16 quarters of OXY reports.