SNOW Earnings History: 93.8% Beat Rate, Next-Day Odds, and What to Do With It

Snowflake earnings move the market. The stock carries high expectations every quarter, and the historical data on how it trades around reports is more useful than most analyst price targets. Here is what the numbers actually say.

The Beat Rate

SNOW has beaten earnings estimates 15 out of 16 quarters tracked. That is a 93.8% beat rate, one of the highest in the ChartOdds database. Only once in 16 quarters did the company come in under consensus.

That kind of consistency tells you something about how Snowflake manages guidance. The company sets a floor it can clear. Traders who ignore that pattern are trading blind.

What Happens After a Beat

Beating estimates does not guarantee a green day. After a SNOW earnings beat, the stock closes higher the next day 53.3% of the time. The average move following a beat is 1.88%, which includes both up and down sessions in the sample.

The miss data is a different story. SNOW has closed down the next day after 100% of its misses. No exceptions in the dataset.

The Pattern

The beat rate is high, but the market prices in strong results. That is why a 93.8% beat rate produces only a 53.3% green-day probability after beats. The upside surprise is already in the price.

SNOW is a high-expectation stock. Post-beat reactions are muted because the bar is always elevated going in. The downside on a miss, however, is consistent and immediate.

The next earnings date is May 20, 2026, 43 days out. That window gives traders time to build a thesis and set up defined-risk positions rather than reacting in the moment.

What This Means for Traders

First: the base case is a beat. A 93.8% historical beat rate means the odds strongly favor SNOW delivering above consensus. Fading that track record requires a specific, well-reasoned catalyst.

Second: a beat is not a free pass. The 53.3% up-day rate after a beat is close to a coin flip. Post-earnings positioning requires discipline on size and a clear exit plan before the number drops.

Third: miss risk is asymmetric. Every single miss in the dataset produced a red day the next session. If SNOW comes in light, the pattern says move fast. All of this data is tracked and updated in real time on ChartOdds.